Understanding international crime trends: The legacy of preschool lead exposure

http://pic.plover.com/Nevin/Nevin2007.pdf

Rick Nevin
Received 12 August 2006; received in revised form 20 February 2007; accepted 23 February 2007
Available online 23 April 2007

Abstract

This study shows a very strong association between preschool blood lead and subsequent crime rate trends over several decades in the USA, Britain, Canada, France, Australia, Finland, Italy, West Germany, and New Zealand. The relationship is characterized by best-fit lags (highest R2 and t -value for blood lead) consistent with neurobehavioral damage in the first year of life and the peak age of offending for index crime, burglary, and violent crime. The impact of blood lead is also evident in age-specific arrest and incarceration trends. Regression analysis of average 1985–1994 murder rates across USA cities suggests that murder could be especially associated with more severe cases of childhood lead poisoning.

1. Introduction

Crime trends can be related to demographic, cultural, economic, and law enforcement trends, but the sharp 1990s USA crime decline was not anticipated by such theories.
Fox (1996) forecasted a 1995–2005 increase in teen murderers due to a rising population of teens, and especially black teens. Those demographic trends were overwhelmed by a 77% fall in the juvenile murder arrest rate from 1993–2003, led by an 83% decline for black youths ( Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention, 2004).
DiIulio (1996) warned juvenile crime was ‘‘getting worse’’ due to children growing up around ‘‘criminal adults’’ in ‘‘fatherless ... jobless settings’’.
Juvenile arrests then plummeted as adult arrest rates changed little, with the percent of children raised by single parents at record highs, and fell further as unemployment rose after 2000.

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