Monday, January 26, 2015

Wavy jet stream

A wavy jet stream seems to be getting to be a habit.

http://www.weather.com/forecast/national/news/mild-midwest-warm-west-record-highs#/1

By Nick Wiltgen
Published Jan 26 2015

Record-breaking warmth has arrived in parts of the West and Midwest, and more records may be broken Tuesday and Wednesday. By late in the week, the warmth will continue in the West while the Midwest sees a cooldown.

The most remarkable record thus far happened in a place famous for recording the world's official record high temperature back in July 1913. Death Valley, California, reached 87 degrees on Sunday, tying its all-time record high for the month of January.

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On Monday, Rapid City, South Dakota topped its daily record high soon after midday, surging into the upper 60s by mid-afternoon. Oklahoma City surged to at least 78 degrees, shattering its daily record of 71 and marking its warmest day since 1997.

Several dozen daily record highs were set across the West and Plains Sunday. Monterey, California, reached 84 to tie its second-highest temperature on record in the month of January.

Bismarck, North Dakota, did not set a record high – but its Sunday low of 33 degrees was the first time Bismarck has stayed above freezing for an entire January day since 2001, and only the 16th such day in 140 years of records there.

On Saturday, Redding, California, reached 80 degrees to tie the city's all-time record high set Jan. 15-16, 2014. Daily record highs were set in several other California cities as well as parts of Oregon, Washington, Idaho and Nevada.

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But there are also downsides. In the Midwest, the persistent warmth will likely cause ice to grow thinner on lakes and ponds, making it more dangerous to venture out onto the ice for fishing or other recreational activities. In fact, a man and his son died Sunday near Oshkosh, Wisconsin, when the man's vehicle plunged through ice on Lake Winnebago according to WISN-TV.

In the West, the warm weather will likely aggravate the ongoing drought in California, especially as it continues to eat away at what little snowpack there is in the Sierra Nevada.

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Why is all of this warm weather happening?

As usual, a sharp northward bulge in the upper-atmospheric jet stream – known technically as a "ridge" – will play a role in the upcoming pattern. The first northward bulge has sent the jet stream as far north as the Yukon in northwest Canada, bringing a rush of mild Pacific air into western Canada, then east across the Rockies. As that already mild air blows down the slopes of the Rockies it will warm even more as it spreads across the Canadian Prairies and southeastward into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.

A second bulge in the jet stream will arrive on the West Coast this weekend, bringing an even warmer air mass into the western U.S. and potentially setting the stage for the widespread record warmth next week.

On top of the atmospheric pattern, the ongoing California drought and relatively sparse snow cover in the Sierra Nevada will further allow temperatures to warm up. The daytime temperatures we feel at ground level on a daily basis are strongly influenced by the sun's ability to heat the ground; wet ground warms up more slowly than dry ground, and snow-covered ground reflects most of the sun's energy back to outer space, preventing it from reaching the ground underneath.

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http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/5-things-to-know-about-winter-storm-juno

5 Things You Should Know About Winter Storm Juno

By Chris Dolce
Published Jan 26 2015

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5.) Juno's Making the West Warm

The deep dip in the jet stream providing the dynamic energy for Juno to intensify has sent the jet stream into an equally amplified, but opposite, configuration in the western United States.

Typically when the jet stream jogs southward in the East, this results in it building northward across the West. The outcome is widespread warmth, and that's what we are seeing from the Great Plains to the West Coast.

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So you don't believe in science?


It's great that science can let us know when a bad weather system is coming.

If you don't believe in science, and you live in the NE U.S., you should ignore the weather reports and go out on the roads now.

If you don't believe 97% of climate scientists who tell us human-induced global warming is happening and is having bad effects, why believe them about a coming storm?

Somebody else

Saw this on Facebook:

The greatest threat to our planet
is the belief that someone else will save it.
- Robert Swann

Many hedge fund managers were already planning their escapes

From economist Robert Reich's Facebook

Jan. 26, 2015

https://www.facebook.com/RBReich/posts/940343575978239





Robert Johnson, president of the Institute of New Economic Thinking, told attendees at the World Economic Forum in Davos that many hedge fund managers were already planning their escapes, should widening inequality fuel civil unrest. “I know hedge fund managers all over the world who are buying airstrips and farms in places like New Zealand because they think they need a getaway."

This raises a number of questions: (1) Wouldn’t it be cheaper for hedge fund managers to simply stop paying politicians to rig the economic game on their behalf? (2) Do they really need their “carried interest” tax loopholes and their easy access to insider information? (3) Wouldn’t they rather live on $5 million a year in peace, rather than $500 million and worry about civil unrest? (4) Why do they suppose widening inequality won’t create civil unrest in New Zealand?

Tax-Aide locations


To find a Tax-Aide location near you, go to the following link:

http://www.aarp.org/money/taxes/aarp_taxaide/

Click on the link for : AARP Foundation Tax-Aide Locator

There are also links for other information, such as what documents you need to bring.

Climate change skeptic accused of violating disclosure rules

The fossil fuel industry stands to gain from global warming because it will take energy to cope with the problems it causes, including increased severe weather. Eg., additional fuel will be needed for snowplows in the NE from the storm that has started there. Cars that have to sit on roads with slow traffic will use more fuel. This is profit to the fossil fuel industry.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2015/01/26/harvard-smithsonian-climate-change-skeptic-accused-violating-academic-disclosure-agreement/Y1uMQ8yuLpYCjOHGckRArO/story.html

The Boston Globe
By Sylvan Lane Globe Correspondent January 26, 2015

A climate-change skeptic at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics who has relied on grants from fossil-fuel energy interests apparently failed to disclose financial conflicts of interest in a newly released paper, according to a complaint by a climate watchdog group.

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The Chinese journal that published the paper, Science Bulletin, imposes a strict conflict of interest policy on authors, obligating contributors to disclose any received funding, financial interests, honors or speaking engagements that might bias their work.

In a note at the end of the paper, all four authors claimed no conflicts of interest on the published study. But Kert Davies, executive director of the Climate Investigations Center, an organization based in Virginia, said Soon’s long track record of accepting energy-industry related grants indicates otherwise and might constitute a violation of Science Bulletin’s disclosure policy.

In a letter to Science Bulletin, Davies points to the more than $1 million Soon has received from companies and interests supporting studies critical of climate change.

“At the end of the article under the heading ‘Conflict of interest’, there is this statement: ‘The authors declare that they have no conflict.’ This simply cannot be true,” Davies wrote. “I am concerned that Dr. Soon has not disclosed his funding sources or his outside consulting fees when submitting this article for publishing in your journal, and I am worried that such failure to disclosure may impact the reputation and credibility of both the journal and the Chinese Academy of Sciences.”

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Soon has received more than $1.3 million in grants from companies, think tanks and organizations that have either publicly criticized human-caused climate change or have a financial interest in fossil fuels, according to documents obtained by environmental activist group Greenpeace through Freedom of Information Act requests.

Fossil fuel interests that have funded Soon’s work include, the American Petroleum Institute, the Texaco Foundation, the ExxonMobil Foundation. He’s also received funding from the Koch brothers, the libertarian-conservative moguls who have lobbied against anti-climate change legislation.

Soon maintains a strong relationship with the Heartland Institute, a conservative think tank known for hosting skeptical conferences on climate change. He’s listed on its website as an expert and he spoken at seven of the institute’s nine conferences.

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Soon has received more than $1.3 million in grants from companies, think tanks and organizations that have either publicly criticized human-caused climate change or have a financial interest in fossil fuels, according to documents obtained by environmental activist group Greenpeace through Freedom of Information Act requests.

Fossil fuel interests that have funded Soon’s work include, the American Petroleum Institute, the Texaco Foundation, the ExxonMobil Foundation. He’s also received funding from the Koch brothers, the libertarian-conservative moguls who have lobbied against anti-climate change legislation.

Soon maintains a strong relationship with the Heartland Institute, a conservative think tank known for hosting skeptical conferences on climate change. He’s listed on its website as an expert and he spoken at seven of the institute’s nine conferences.

The Great Blizzard of 2015: Fair to say it is AGW amplified.

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/01/26/the-great-blizzard-of-2015-fair-to-say-it-is-agw-enhanced/

by Greg Laden on January 26, 2015

About 20 million people are currently under a blizzard warning, and double that under a winter weather advisory, for a storm moving into the Northeast today and tomorrow, with snow falling though Wednesday. Thousands of flights have been cancelled. Wind will be at tropical storm force, and occasionally, hurricane force, and coastal flooding is expected to be epic. The total amounts of snowfall will be over a foot for a very large area, and well over that here and there, though this is very difficult to predict.

This is a strong low pressure system that will gather significant energy from a warm sea surface as it moves into the Atlantic.

This is a system that would normally not produce a lot of snow, but the odd configuration of the jet stream (once again) is moving the low pressure system through a pattern that will create an epic blizzard.

Storms of roughly this magnitude, in this the New York City area, have occurred in 1888, 1947, 1978, 1993, 1996, 2003, 2006, 2010. A similar pattern would emerge if the focal area was Boston. Weather Wunderground lists these snow events for New York City, indicating that half of the heavy events since the mid nineteenth century have occurred in the last 12 years:

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Both the odd jet stream and the warm sea surface temperatures can be pegged as likely effects of anthropogenic global warming (AGW). This added to the clear pattern of more of these storms happening very recently strongly suggest that it is reasonable to characterize this storm as a “global warming amplified storm.” This is not unexpected.

I’m not sure if the sea surface temperatures in the region are at a record high, but they are very high. Over time, North Atlantic sea surface temperatures have certainly risen:

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There has been an increase in extreme precipitation in the Northeast, with a 71% change in the region:

This is inline with predictions the IPCC has been making for some time now. According to climate scientist Michael Mann, “The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has found that Nor’easters like this one may grow stronger w/ human-caused climate change, as they are driven by the contrast between cold Arctic air masses and ever-warming ocean surface temperatures. We also know that ocean surface temperatures off the U.S. east coast right now are unusually warm, and there is no doubt that a component of that anomalous warmth is due to human-caused climate change. Those warm ocean temperatures also mean that there is more moisture in the air for this storm to feed on and to produce huge snowfalls inland. Climate change is making these sorts of storms more common, much as it is making Sandy-like Superstorms and unusually intense hurricanes more common. Asking whether these storms were caused by climate change, however, is asking the wrong question. What we *can* say is that they were likely made worse by climate change.”

Kevin Trenbeth, of the National Center for Atmospheric Research notes that the main reason there is a big blizzard coming to the northeast is that it is winter, but “it is warm over the oceans and the contrast between the cold continent and the warm Gulf Stream and surrounding waters is increasing. At present sea surface temperatures are more than 2F above normal over huge expanses (1000 miles) off the east coast and water vapor in the atmosphere is about 10% higher as a result. About half of this can be attributed to climate change.” I would add that the actual anomolies over large areas of the sea where this low pressure system will track are closer to 4 degrees.

Cold Nights Are Decreasing Across the U.S.

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/cold-nights-decreasing-across-us-18587

Jan. 23, 2015

It’s easy to think of global warming as something that happens at a steady pace everywhere. But that’s not the full story. It’s true that the global average temperature has been rising overall since modern record-keeping began, and it’s true that 2014 was the hottest year on record, but the rise hasn’t been perfectly steady. Each year isn’t always warmer than the one before, and some places — the Arctic, for example — have warmed faster than others.

When you zoom in, even regions in the U.S. have warmed at different rates. Some seasons have warmed faster than others. And the pace of warming can even vary depending on the time of day. For example, a Climate Central analysis in 2013 showed that winter nights in the U.S. have warmed about 30 percent faster than nights over the entire year.

Now we've done a new city-level analysis showing the trend in daily low temperatures below freezing. That is, for most of the country. In places where the temperature dips below freezing so rarely that it's hard to establish a trend at that cutoff, we used 40°F or 45°F. You can find your city in the dropdown menu above to see how cold nights have changed since 1970.

Of course, daily lows don’t always happen at night but they usually do. And the rise we see in daily lows is consistent with the overall pattern you’d expect in a warming world. Due to regional variability, the lows haven’t been on an upward trend in every city — but that’s just one more example of how global warming can have a distinctly local flavor.

What A Warming World Means for Major Snowstorms

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/what-warming-world-means-for-major-snowstorms-18594

By Andrea Thompson
Jan. 26, 2015

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An intense nor’easter is slated to drop snowfalls ranging from a few inches to around 3 feet in the worst-hit spots from Monday through Wednesday according to forecasters, along with strong winds and storm surge in coastal areas. It might seem strange to talk about a major winter storm in the context of a warming world, but as the climate changes, extreme snowfalls may become a bigger proportion of all snowstorms.

Simply put, the warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, which can mean more snow as long as temperatures remain cold enough; average snow amounts are actually expected to decrease with warming by 2100, but the most extreme snows won't drop off quite as quickly.

Like other historic nor’easters that have buried cities like New York and Boston in the past, this storm’s potentially record-breaking snows are a product of, well, a perfect storm of atmospheric conditions.

The low pressure area at the heart of the storm is tracking along the East Coast in a way that lets it exploit the contrast between the cold air over land and the warmth of the oceans, which are running more than 2°F warmer than normal along much of the coast, said Kevin Trenberth, a climatologist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. The warmer ocean waters mean more moisture in the atmosphere for the storm to suck up; the cold air over the continent ensures that moisture falls as snow.

“The developing storm is in just the right position to tap into the high moisture over the ocean and develop as it experiences the sharp contrast between the continent and the relatively warm ocean,” Trenberth said in an email.

About half of the current anomalous ocean warmth, and therefore the enhanced moisture, can be attributed to climate change, Trenberth said. As the oceans and atmosphere warm due to the buildup of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, that moisture source could continue to grow, to the tune of 4 percent more water vapor in the atmosphere for every 1°F rise in global temperatures. Earth’s average temperature has already risen by 1.6°F since the beginning of the 20th century, and is expected to rise another 0.5°F to 9°F by 2100, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, depending on greenhouse gas emissions.

But whether that increased moisture means more snow in the future depends on how warm the air gets over land. Snowstorms occurring in the middle of winter like this nor’easter could drop more snow because temperatures are more likely to stay cold enough for the water to freeze.

“So as long as it does not warm above freezing, the result is a greater dump of snow,” Trenberth said of future storms.

But at the margins of the snowy season, it could warm enough that any storm will dump rain instead of snow, he said.

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But observations of snowfalls over the past seven decades haven’t shown a clear trend for the Northeast. While there has been a 70 percent increase in heavy precipitation events in the region since 1958, most of that has been in warm weather rainstorms, Ken Kunkel, a researcher at the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C., said.

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It’s also difficult to say how a warmer atmosphere might impact nor’easters, and extratropical cyclones more broadly. These cyclones are different from the tropical variety (a.k.a. hurricanes), which are fueled by moisture. Extratropical cyclones get their power from the temperature difference across a frontal system, so more moisture doesn’t necessarily mean more power, even though it means more precipitation, Trenberth said.

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One clear effect of climate change on the impacts of nor’easters comes not from the snows they’re associated with, but from the coastal flooding they can cause — an often underappreciated threat. Like hurricanes, the ferocious winds of nor’easters can whip up a significant storm surge that can then flood coastal areas. Such floods are even more likely due to the 1 foot of sea level rise off the Northeast since 1900, due in part to the expansion of warming ocean waters, as well as ice melt.

So while the future of snow in the Northeast is still uncertain, the future of storm surge flooding is much clearer.

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Black women working night shifts have an increased risk of developing diabetes

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2015-01/d-bww010715.php

Public Release: 11-Jan-2015
Diabetologia

Data from a large ongoing study into the health of African-American women show that those who work night shifts are significantly more likely to develop diabetes than those who have never worked night shifts, with more years working the night shift resulting in a higher risk. Furthermore, the increased risk of diabetes seen in shift workers was more pronounced in younger women than older women.

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Relative to never having worked the night shift, the increased risk of developing diabetes was 17% for 1-2 years night shift work; 23% for 3-9 years, and 42% for 10 or more years. After adjustment for BMI and lifestyle factors such as diet and smoking status, the association between increasing years of night shift work and increasing diabetes risk remained statistically significant, with a 23% increase in those who had worked night shifts for 10 years or more versus those who never had worked the night shift.

When black women having ever worked the night shift (any duration) were compared to those who had never worked it, they were found to be at a 22% increased risk of developing diabetes. After adjustment for BMI and lifestyle factors, this increased risk became 12%.

The authors also found that the association was stronger in younger women than in older women. Working night shifts for 10 or more years relative to never working the night shift was associated with a 39% higher risk of diabetes among women aged less than 50 years compared with 17% higher risk in women aged 50 years or over.

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Shift work is associated with disrupted circadian rhythms and reduced total duration of sleep. Similar to the effects of jet lag, which are short term, shift workers experience fatigue, sleepiness during scheduled awake periods and poor sleep during scheduled sleep periods. These alterations in the normal sleep-wake cycle have profound effects on metabolism... Even after many years of night-shift work, circadian rhythms do not fully adjust to the shifted sleep-wake cycle. The metabolic effects of long-term shift work likely underlie a part of the association with diabetes that we and others describe and that strengthens with years of exposure to sleep disruption."

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In view of the high prevalence of shift work among workers in the USA - 35% among non-Hispanic blacks and 28% in non-Hispanic whites - an increased diabetes risk among this group has important public health implications. There is a need for continued research into facilitating circadian adaptation to shift work and consideration of avoiding shift work in favour of other work arrangements when possible."

Small volcanic eruptions partly explain 'warming hiatus'

Deep ocean water has continued to get warmer during this time. The "hiatus" refers to surface air temperatures.

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2015-01/dlnl-sve010915.php

Public Release: 9-Jan-2015
DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

The "warming hiatus" that has occurred over the last 15 years has been partly caused by small volcanic eruptions.

Scientists have long known that volcanoes cool the atmosphere because of the sulfur dioxide that is expelled during eruptions. Droplets of sulfuric acid that form when the gas combines with oxygen in the upper atmosphere can persist for many months, reflecting sunlight away from Earth and lowering temperatures at the surface and in the lower atmosphere.

Previous research suggested that early 21st century eruptions might explain up to a third of the recent "warming hiatus."

New research available online in the journal Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) further identifies observational climate signals caused by recent volcanic activity. This new research complements an earlier GRL paper published in November, which relied on a combination of ground, air and satellite measurements, indicated that a series of small 21st century volcanic eruptions deflected substantially more solar radiation than previously estimated.

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The warmest year on record is 1998. After that, the steep climb in global surface temperatures observed over the 20th century appeared to level off. This "hiatus" received considerable attention, despite the fact that the full observational surface temperature record shows many instances of slowing and acceleration in warming rates. Scientists had previously suggested that factors such as weak solar activity and increased heat uptake by the oceans could be responsible for the recent lull in temperature increases. After publication of a 2011 paper in the journal Science by Susan Solomon of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), it was recognized that an uptick in volcanic activity might also be implicated in the "warming hiatus."

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They used these improved estimates of total volcanic aerosols in a simple climate model, and estimated that volcanoes may have caused cooling of 0.05 degrees to 0.12 degrees Celsius since 2000.

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"The fact that these volcanic signatures are apparent in multiple independently measured climate variables really supports the idea that they are influencing climate in spite of their moderate size," said Mark Zelinka, another Livermore author. "If we wish to accurately simulate recent climate change in models, we cannot neglect the ability of these smaller eruptions to reflect sunlight away from Earth."

Infamous study of humanity's 'dark side' may actually show how to keep it at bay

This reminds me of when I was in high school in Alabama in the early 1960's, when the schools were segregated by race. I had to write an essay for an English class, and wrote about ways in which Caucasians are more similar to monkeys than African-Americans are. Eg., having light-colored skin. I got an A. I felt this teacher did not like the racism of her society, but was afraid to actively go against it.

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2015-01/uow-iso010915.php

Public Release: 9-Jan-2015
University of Wisconsin-Madison

In 1961, with memories of Holocaust atrocities and the prosecution of Nazi officials at Nuremburg still fresh, psychologist Stanley Milgram undertook a series of now infamous experiments on obedience and reprehensible behavior.

About two-thirds of Milgram's nearly 800 study subjects, pressed by an authoritative experimenter, were willing to administer increasingly powerful electric shocks to an unseen stranger despite cries of agony and pleas to stop.

"Milgram claimed to have found sort of a dark side to human nature that people were not quite as attuned to," says Matthew Hollander, a graduate student in sociology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. "His study participants were much more likely to obey than he expected, and that was an understandably uncomfortable result."

But Milgram divided his subjects into just two categories: obedient or disobedient. After examining the experiences of more than 100 of Milgram's participants, Hollander sees a great deal more nuance in their performances -- and maybe a way to prevent real-world occurrences of authority overriding ethical judgment.

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Hollander's unprecedentedly deep conversational analysis of audio recordings of the experiments yielded six practices employed against the repeated insistence of Milgram's authority figure.

Some are less insistent. Hollander found study subjects resorting to silence and hesitation, groaning and sighing to display the effort it took to comply, and (typically uncomfortable) laughter.

They also found more explicit ways to express their discomfort and disagreement. Subjects stalled by talking to the recipient of the shocks and by addressing their concerns to the experimenter. Most assertively, they resorted to what Hollander calls the "stop try."

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Most often, stop tries involved some variation on, "I can't do this anymore," or "I won't do this anymore," and were employed by 98 percent of the disobedient Milgram subjects studied by Hollander. That's compared to fewer than 20 percent of the obedient subjects.

Interestingly, all six of the resistive actions were put to use by obedient and disobedient participants.

"There are differences between those two groups in how and how often they use those six practices," says Hollander, whose work is supported by the National Science Foundation. "It appears that the disobedient participants resist earlier, and resist in a more diverse way. They make use of more of the six practices than the obedient participants."

Therein lies a possible application of Hollander's new take on Milgram's results.

"What this shows is that even those who were ultimately compliant or obedient had practices for resisting the invocation of the experimenter's authority," says Douglas Maynard, a UW-Madison sociology professor who leads the Garfinkel Laboratory for Ethnomethodology and Conversation Analysis. "It wasn't like they automatically caved in. They really worked to counter what was coming at them. It wasn't a blind kind of obedience."

If people could be trained to tap practices for resistance like those outlined in Hollander's analysis, they may be better equipped to stand up to an illegal, unethical or inappropriate order from a superior. And not just in extreme situations, according to Maynard.

"It doesn't have to be the Nazis or torture at Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq or in the CIA interrogations described in the recent U.S. Senate report," he says. "Think of the pilot and copilot in a plane experiencing an emergency or a school principal telling a teacher to discipline a student, and the difference it could make if the subordinate could be respectfully, effectively resistive and even disobedient when ethically necessary or for purposes of social justice."

Screening HPV infection alone more accurate than Pap test in detection of cervical cancer

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2015-01/e-shi010815.php

Public Release: 8-Jan-2015
Elsevier

Screening for human papillomavirus (HPV) infection alone gives more accurate results than Pap (smear) testing for cervical cancer, say the authors of two papers to published today in the journal Gynecologic Oncology. HPV infection causes almost all cervical cancer, and it is estimated that more than half of sexually active people are infected with HPV at some point in their lives. Now new research has shown that in many cases, an HPV test alone can be used for cervical cancer screening instead of a Pap or cotesting with both an HPV and a Pap test, the researchers say.

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Infection with just two HPV genotypes, 16 and 18, is responsible for about 70% of all invasive cervical cancers worldwide. The panel recommends that patients testing positive for either of these two high risk genotypes should have immediate colposcopy - a procedure using a lighted magnifying device that allows doctors to see abnormal areas in the cervix that would be missed by the naked eye. Women with one of the 12 other HPV genotypes can be followed-up in 12 months with repeat testing with both the HPV test and a Pap.

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How quality of sleep impacts academic performance in children

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2015-01/dmhu-hqo010815.php

Public Release: 8-Jan-2015
Douglas Mental Health University Institute

Making sure school-aged kids get to sleep at a regular hour is often a struggle for parents. But a study by researchers at McGill University and the Douglas Mental Health University Institute in Montreal suggests it's well worth the effort: the researchers found that a good night's sleep is linked to better performance in math and languages - subjects that are powerful predictors of later learning and academic success.

In findings published recently in the journal Sleep Medicine, the researchers reported that "sleep efficiency" is associated with higher academic performance in those key subjects. Sleep efficiency is a gauge of sleep quality that compares the amount of actual sleep time with the total time spent in bed.

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Alcohol warnings from parents matter

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2015-01/uab-awf010815.php

Public Release: 8-Jan-2015
University at Buffalo

Parenting practices and restrictions when it comes to alcohol use can make a difference with adolescent drinking, and there is considerable value to consistent and sustained parental attitudes about drinking, according to new research by a University at Buffalo psychologist.

This study, however, shows that those same parents who communicate the risks of alcohol use with their young children are often less likely to continue those discussions as their kids get older, a result suggesting that parents shouldn't underestimate the impact of maintaining that messaging as their children move through adolescence, according to Craig Colder.

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Eliminating ACA subsidies would cause nearly 10 million to lose insurance, study finds

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2015-01/rc-eas010815.php

Public Release: 8-Jan-2015
RAND Corporation

Eliminating government subsidies for low- and moderate-income people who purchase coverage through federally run health insurance marketplaces would sharply boost costs and reduce enrollment in the individual market by more than 9.6 million, according to a new RAND Corporation study.

Modeling the likely effects of ending subsidies in 34 states where the federal government operates insurance marketplaces for individuals, researchers found that such a move would cause individual market enrollment to drop by 70 percent among people buying policies that comply with the federal Affordable Care Act.

In addition, unsubsidized individual market premiums would rise by 47 percent in those states. The hike would correspond to a $1,610 annual increase for a 40-year-old nonsmoker who purchased a silver-level plan.

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If the subsidies are struck down, enrollment in the ACA-compliant individual market in the 34 states would drop from 13.7 million people to 4.1 million, according to the analysis. In addition, premium costs for a 40-year-old nonsmoker purchasing a silver plan would be expected to rise from $3,450 annually to $5,060.

Researchers found the effects of ending federal subsidies would be larger in states with federally run marketplaces than in states that run their own marketplaces.

Among the reasons for that difference is that states with federally run marketplaces generally have higher proportions of low-income individuals, who tend to be more sensitive to insurance prices and thus are more likely to drop insurance without subsidies. Those states also had higher uninsurance rates prior to adoption of the Affordable Care Act.

In addition, most of these same states did not expand Medicaid to cover more people as allowed under the Affordable Care Act. This means that there generally are more low-income people buying policies in those states' insurance marketplaces.

Ritual circumcision linked to increased risk of autism in young boys

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2015-01/sp-rcl010815.php

Public Release: 8-Jan-2015young boys
SAGE Publications

Research published today by the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine suggests that circumcised boys are more likely than intact boys to develop autism spectrum disorder (ASD) before the age of 10. Risk is particularly high for infantile autism before the age of five.

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The study showed that regardless of cultural background circumcised boys may run a greater risk of developing ASD. The researchers also made an unexpected observation of an increased risk of hyperactivity disorder among circumcised boys in non-Muslim families.

Professor Morten Frisch of the Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, who led the research, said: "Our investigation was prompted by the combination of recent animal findings linking a single painful injury to lifelong deficits in stress response and a study showing a strong, positive correlation between a country's neonatal male circumcision rate and its prevalence of ASD in boys."

Today it is considered unacceptable practice to circumcise boys without proper pain relief but none of the most common interventions used to reduce circumcision pain completely eliminates it and some boys will endure strongly painful circumcisions. The researchers say that the pain associated with circumcision in very young babies is likely to be more severe during the operation and post-operatively.

Painful experiences in neonates have been shown in animal and human studies to be associated with long-term alterations in pain perception, a characteristic often encountered among children with ASD.

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ACA changing

Because the ACA is new, requirements were looser last year than they will be this year. Be aware that what you could get by with last year might not apply this year.

5 Studies That Show How Wealth Warps Your Soul

If you look at the whole history of some people, you see that some do become rich because of being unethical. I don't believe this is an either/or situation.

http://www.alternet.org/economy/5-studies-show-how-wealth-warps-your-soul

by Zaid Jilani
January 2, 2015

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That's the thesis of a Michael Lewis essay on how being rich can make you both more “selfish and dishonest.” Opening with an instructive lesson drawn from youthful days at a summer tennis camp, Lewis cites a broad array of studies showing the deleterious impact of excess wealth. But he does not think the problem is inborn, or that genetically nasty people are more apt to make big bucks. No, he writes: "The problem is caused by the inequality itself: It triggers a chemical reaction in the privileged few. It tilts their brains. It causes them to be less likely to care about anyone but themselves or to experience the moral sentiments needed to be a decent citizen."

It's not just his impression. Here are five studies he cites that illustrate and quantify the moral and psychological deficits of the wealthy.

1. Too Much Money Can Make You Greedy: Researchers at the New York State Psychiatric Institute interviewed 30,000 people and found that richer Americans are more likely to shoplift than the poor. Another study at UC Berkeley found that the “richer the person was,” the more likely they'd pilfer candy from a jar labeled only for children.

2. Too Much Money Can Make You A Cheater: UC Berkeley's Paul Piff had participants of different income levels play a game that offered a $50 cash prize. He found that people with incomes of $150,000 a year cheated four times more than those who made $15,000 a year. This is striking because $50 makes a much bigger difference in your life if you make $15,000 a year than $150,000 year. It could mean the difference between paying a bill or not, having lunch or going without, or buying a friend a beer.

3. Too Much Money Can Make You More Stingy: Nonprofit researchers looked at charitable giving and found that people with incomes below $25,000 give away around 4.2% of their income while those of at least $150,000 in income give away around 2.7 %.

4. Too Much Money Can Make You Less Empathetic: UCLA's Keely Muscatell found that people with great income “exhibit less activity in the regions of the brain associated empathy when shown pictures of kids with cancer.” Researcher Dacher Keltner found in twelve different studies that “lower class people just show more empathy, more prosocial behavior, more compassion, no matter how you look at it.”

5. Too Much Money Can Make You More Difficult To Satisfy: Harvard's Michael Norton asked people how happy they were, and found that rich people consistently “said they needed two to three times more than they had to feel happier.”

There is no doubt that for those who are indigent, money is a life-line – literally – to a healthier an more productive life. But evidence abounds that being super-rich will not make you happier, and could very well make you a worse person. So, maybe we should put the 1% out of their (and our) misery.

Common Pesticide May Pose Risk to Workers Who Apply It

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/common-pesticide-may-pose-risk-to-workers-who-apply-it/

January 8, 2015 |By Brian Bienkowski and Environmental Health News

An insecticide used on corn and other U.S. crops poses health risks to workers who mix and apply it and also can contaminate drinking water, according to a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency report released this week.

The report is an update, based on new research, to a 2011 assessment of the health impacts of the pesticide chlorpyrifos (pronounced KLOR – pie -ra – phos), which remains one of the most commonly applied organophosphate pesticides. It has been banned for more than a decade for household use but is still used commercially on corn, soybeans, fruit and nut trees and some golf courses.

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The agency did not find any additional risks from airborne or food exposure. It cited the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture data that found “no concerns for chlorpyrifos in food, with the pesticide detected in less than 1 [percent] of samples.”

However, researchers believe inhalation is likely a major exposure route for people living near heavily treated fields, said Janie Shelton, an epidemiologist who led a study linking chlorpyrifos to autism in babies born to moms near treated fields in farm-heavy Northern California last year.

This bystander exposure is likely a “sub-clinical exposure” - where the mom would not experience any effects herself, but the constant chronic exposure in drift or house dust could impact an unborn child, Shelton said.

Chlorpyrifos is a neurotoxin that prevents the synapses of the nerves from stopping activity, causing over-stimulation, Shelton said. It has been linked to birth defects, low birth weights and impaired brain development problems, and endocrine disruption.

Fetuses are at much higher risk from the pesticide, she said.

“Adults have an enzyme that can metabolize organophosphates like chlorpyrifos,” Shelton said. “That is something that only comes online after birth. So babies in the womb don’t have the metabolizing enzyme.

“If they’re exposed to a neurotoxin it would take much lower levels to see observable effects.” The EPA did not return requests to comment on the new report.

Despite household bans, some evidence suggests people are still exposed to the chemicals. A study of Northern California families and floor wipe samples last year found that 99 percent of floor wipes and 65 percent of study participants had some chlorpyrifos in them.

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House GOP says edited YouTube post of Obama SOTU speech ‘inadvertent’

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2015/01/21/253924/altered-state-house-gop-says-edited.html

By William Douglas
McClatchy Washington Bureau
January 21, 2015

House Republicans say they’re trying to determine how a doctored version of President Barack Obama’s State of the Union address made it onto YouTube after a liberal website pointed out the edited video.

‘Think Progress’ noted that the House Republicans’ official website put a version of Obama’s speech onto YouTube that didn’t include some of his Republican-critical remarks about climate change.

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Missing in the YouTube video was a section of the speech where Obama blasted Republicans for claiming they are ‘not scientists’ when comes to climate change matters.

‘I’ve heard some folks try to dodge the evidence by saying they’re not scientists; that we don’t have enough information to act,’ Obama is supposed to say at 43:25 minutes into the video. ‘Well, I’m not a scientist, either. But you know what – I know a lot of really good scientists at NASA, and NOAA, and at our major universities. The best scientists in the world are telling us that our activities are changing the climate, and if we do not act forcefully, we’ll continue to see rising oceans, longer, hotter heat waves, dangerous droughts and floods, and massive disruptions that can trigger greater migration, conflict, and hunger around the globe.’

But the video instead skips to Obama saying ‘The Pentagon says that climate change poses immediate risks to our national security. We should act like it.’

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Radical Christianity Rarely Makes The Headlines

http://quietmike.org/2015/01/11/radical-christianity-rarely-makes-headlines/

Posted by Julian Drury on Sunday, January 11, 2015

While the world focuses on the Charlie Hebdo atrocity, and the chaos evolving from its aftermath, a powerful and divisive narrative is emerging once again about Islam. Islam is being targeted specifically for the violence associated with terrorist acts, which some can argue may be fair or unfair. However, while I gather the full scope of the narrative against Islam, I come across a very disturbing fact: Violence against Muslims by Christians and other religions is on the rise.

The narrative against Islam is that its sacred texts (Koran, Hadith) sponsor violence and barbaric practices. It is directly associated with acts by extremists and terrorists. Now, I will admit, I partially agree with this. Indeed, Islamic extremists are inspired to violence by the faulty verses and codes of the religion. Yet, the narrative that we hear in the West is that Islam is exceptionally dangerous. Somehow, Islam alone holds a prime monopoly on religious violence.

I have read many articles on the Charlie Hebdo case, and while doing so, I will occasionally glance at other stories that should have grabbed more attention. There are many acts of violence being waged against Muslim communities, often by Christians, in response to religious hatred and doctrinal code. The examples are quite numerous.

In the Central African Republic (CAR), Christian militias and armed factions are brutally attacking and murdering Muslims. The UN, as reported by both ABC and Aljazeera, has declared that Muslims in the CAR are being ethnically cleansed by Christians in rather brutal campaigns.

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While Christians ethnically cleansing Muslims in Central Africa is scarcely known in Western circles, Boko Haram receives huge coverage when they attack Christians in Nigeria. When Muslims are the aggressors, the story is covered fully in the Western Press. When Christians are the aggressors, the story receives a faint note, and dies quickly without much discussion.

Before and after the Charlie Hebdo attack, there was a series of bombings and bomb plots against Mosques and Muslim community centers. While the stories were covered by Western outlets, they were not given the in-depth discussion that the Charlie Hebdo incident is given. In fact, when I was discussing Charlie Hebdo with coworkers, I mentioned the mosque attacks, and literally none of them had heard about it.

The mosque attacks and plots were quite numerous, as well, and extended globally. Now, just picture the reverse. A numerous set of Churches and Synagogues are bombed or targeted by Muslims would make major headlines in Western mainstream press. Yet, if the opposite occurs, and we see cases of Christian violence on the rise, the mainstream media barely gives it a whisper.

Very few in the West know about the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) based in East and Central Africa. As such, very few then received the recent news that one of the main leaders of the LRA has been captured by US sponsored forces. The capture or even the rapsheet of the LRA has almost no attention paid to it at all in the United States.

Even though the LRA (a Christian terrorist group) has killed nearly 100,000 people since 1987, and Joseph Kony has been on the Top Ten list of most wanted terrorists in the US for years, The LRA apparently has no real importance given to it.

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It boils down to this: people in the West are majority Christians, so therefore the majority will automatically assume its own purity. Christians are not generally critical of their religion or cultural heritage (neither are Muslims in that respect). There is almost no real discussion among the Christian dominated West about the levels of violence and aggression that Christianity does allow for.

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Monday, January 19, 2015

Richest 1% will soon own 50% of all wealth, Oxfam warns

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/richest-1-will-soon-own-50-of-all-wealth-oxfam-warns-1.2917564

Jan. 19, 2015

The richest one per cent of people globally are poised to own more than half of all wealth by next year, international inequality watchdog Oxfam warns in a report released today.

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The group's research shows the share of wealth owned by the richest one per cent has increased from 44 per cent six years ago in 2009 to 48 per cent last year. And the uneven distribution doesn't just spike at the very end — the top 20 per cent are still doing well for themselves.

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The poorest 80 per cent own just 5.5 per cent of the world's wealth. That means four-fifths of everyone in the world have an average of $3,851 US to their name.

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Oxfam made headlines this time last year with a similar report, which found that the world's 85 richest people had as much wealth as the poorest 50 per cent — more than 3.5 billion people. This year, that group was even more rarified — as few as 80 people now own more than the poorest half of all humans on earth do combined.

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The group's paper outlines a few policies that the global community could work towards to make a real dent in inequality. They include

Clamping down on tax dodgers by closing tax-evading loopholes that are only available to multinational corporations and extremely rich individuals
Share the global tax burden more fairly by shifting the onus of taxation away from consumption and income and on to capital and wealth.
Introduce minimum wage standards and work towards a living wage for all workers.

The report cites a few sectors in particular for being major roadblocks to inequality, by using their pre-existing power and influence to sway legislation in their favour.

The health-care and financial services industries spent almost $900 million to lobby the U.S. government for favourable legislation in 2013, and more than $200 million was spent on lobbying in the EU, Oxfam said.

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Sunday, January 18, 2015

Over 80 percent of Americans support “mandatory labels on foods containing DNA”

Several years ago, when the media was paying attention to the poor showing of Americans in science knowledge compared to other developed countries, some people were asking why it mattered. It does matter for several reasons. It is easy to be make mistakes in regards to what is in your best interest, and to be snookered by others for their benefit against your own interests.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2015/01/17/over-80-percent-of-americans-support-mandatory-labels-on-foods-containing-dna/

By Ilya Somin January 17, 2015

A recent survey by economist Jayson Lusk at the Oklahoma State University Department of Agricultural Economics finds that over 80 percent of Americans support “mandatory labels on foods containing DNA,” about the same number as support mandatory labeling of GMO foods “produced with genetic engineering.”

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Polls repeatedly show that much of the public is often ignorant of both basic scientific facts, and basic facts about government and public policy. Just before the 2014 elections, which determined control of Congress, only 38 percent realized that the Republicans controlled the House of Representatives before the election, and the same number knew that the Democrats control the Senate. The public’s scientific knowledge isn’t much better. A 2012 National Science Foundation survey even found that about 25% of Americans don’t know that the Earth revolves around the sun rather than vice versa.

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It would be a mistake to assume that widespread political and scientific ignorance are the result of “the stupidity of the American voter,” •••

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For many people, there is little benefit to understanding much about genetics or DNA. Most Americans can even go about their daily business perfectly well without knowing that the Earth revolves around the sun. Even the smartest people are inevitably ignorant of the vast majority of information out there. We all have to focus our time and energy on learning that information which is most likely to be instrumentally useful, or at least provide entertainment value. For large numbers of people, much basic political and scientific information doesn’t make the cut.

Unfortunately, this is a case where individually rational behavior leads to potentially dangerous collective outcomes. While it doesn’t much matter whether any individual voter is ignorant about science or public policy, when a majority (or even a large minority) of the electorate is ignorant in these ways, it can lead to the adoption of dangerous and counterproductive government policies.

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Saturday, January 17, 2015

Heed ACA Marketplace mailings


If you receive any info from the ACA Marketplace (healthcare.gov), such as a record of payments or subsidies, or decisions on exemptions, etc., keep it with your other tax materials. You will need it to file your taxes.

Tax-Aide

I am not posting much because I am working on getting my certification renewed to do Tax-Aide for this year. The biggest change is the Affordable Care Act, no surprise.

AARP works with the IRS to provide free tax filing for senior and low to moderate income people. Not all situations are in scope for them.

Be advised that some deductions are no longer available because Congress allowed them to expire. And at least one that was extended at the last moment is not in scope for Tax-Aide this year because they didn't get the info in time to incorporate it into the training.

On the other hand, some things that used to be out of scope are now in scope for Tax-Aide. I will be providing updates.

I noticed that we are no longer giving people info on how to contact the IRS. Obviously because Congressional Republicans have cut back funding to the IRS, which sounds great to many voters. This means fewer people to help taxpayers, at the same time as they have many question because of the ACA. And I would suspect it means fewer people to process returns, so maybe people won't get their refunds as quickly? The people who work at the IRS are fellow humans, and can only do so much, just like all of us. You don't have to be receiving benefits labeled welfare to have a welfare mentality. To expect government services w/o adequate funding is a welfare mentality.

Friday, January 16, 2015

2014 Global Temperature Recap

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/videos/2014-global-temperature-recap

January 15, 2015

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In 2014, the combined land and ocean surface temperature was 1.24°F (0.69°C) above the 20th century average, making the year the warmest since records began in 1880. The ocean alone was record warm, while the land alone was fourth warmest. Five months set new records for warmth: May, June, August, September, and December. October tied for record warmest.

The 20 warmest years in the historical record have all occurred in the past 20 years. Except for 1998, the 10 warmest years on record have occurred since 2002.



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FAQ: Why do you use the 20th-century average for baseline for the statistics and rankings, but use 1981-2010 for the maps?

The short answer is because of global warming.

The Earth’s average surface temperature has risen significantly enough over the 20th century that if we made a map that compared any recent monthly average to the 20th-century average for that month, virtually the entire globe would have positive anomalies; most of the map would appear in shades of red.

Such a map would be less meaningful for helping people understand how a the current month or year compared to their recent (or even lifetime) experience of climate, which is often more interesting and relevant to people than how the current period compares to the 20th-century average.

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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/global/2014/12

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• During 2014, the average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 1.24°F (0.69°C) above the 20th century average. This was the highest among all 135 years in the 1880–2014 record, surpassing the previous records of 2005 and 2010 by 0.07°F (0.04°C).

• Record warmth was spread around the world, including Far East Russia into western Alaska, the western United States, parts of interior South America, most of Europe stretching into northern Africa, parts of eastern and western coastal Australia, much of the northeastern Pacific around the Gulf of Alaska, the central to western equatorial Pacific, large swaths of northwestern and southeastern Atlantic, most of the Norwegian Sea, and parts of the central to southern Indian Ocean.

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Global Warming Linked To More Extreme Weather And Weaker Jet Stream

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/01/15/3612054/global-warming-extreme-weather/

by Joe Romm Posted on January 15, 2015

We have seen a quantum jump in extreme weather events in the Northern Hemisphere in the last several years. Droughts, deluges, and heat waves are increasingly getting “stuck” or “blocked,” which in turn worsens and prolongs their impact beyond what might be expected just from the recent human-caused increase in global temperatures.

A growing body of research ties that unexpected jump to a weakening of the jet stream — in particular to “more frequent high-amplitude (wavy) jet-stream configurations that favor persistent weather patterns,” as a new study puts it.

Much of this new research ties the weakening jet stream to “Arctic amplification (AA) — defined here as the enhanced sensitivity of Arctic temperature change relative to mid-latitude regions,” in the words of the new study, “Evidence for a wavier jet stream in response to rapid Arctic warming” by Jennifer Francis and Stephen Vavrus. But that is no by no means a universally accepted explanation. I’ll review some of the evidence in this post.

Reinsurer Munich Re has the most comprehensive database of global natural catastrophes Their 2010 analysis, “Large number of weather extremes as strong indication of climate change,” concluded “it would seem that the only plausible explanation for the rise in weather-related catastrophes is climate change. The view that weather extremes are more frequent and intense due to global warming coincides with the current state of scientific knowledge.” For instance, a 2010 Journal of Climate study that found “global warming is the main cause of a significant intensification in the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) that in recent decades has more than doubled the frequency of abnormally wet or dry summer weather in the southeastern United States.”

In 2011, Dr. Peter Höppe, Head of the Geo Risks Research Department at Munich Re explained what had persuaded him of the causal link:


For me the most convincing piece of evidence that global warming has been contributing already to more and more intense weather related natural catastrophes is the fact that while we find a steep increase in the number of loss relevant weather events (about tripling in the last 30 years) we only find a slight increase in geophysical (earthquake, volcano, tsunami) events, which should not be affected by global warming. If the whole trend we find in weather related disaster should be caused by reporting bias, or socio-demographic or economic developments we would expect to find it similarly for the geophysical events.

And that was before two years of off-the-charts extreme weather catastrophes, particularly in North America (in 2011, the head of NOAA said the record dozen billion-dollar weather disasters was “a harbinger of things to come.”

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Thursday, January 15, 2015

Love Lights the Way

I started writing it a few days after 9/11.
You can listen to it on Reverbnation.
It was recorded and performed by David Leonard




Love Lights the Way
copyright 2011 Patricia M. Shannon
performed and produced by David Leonard
http://www.revealaudio.com/

Hold me close, let me know that you love me,
in this world full of darkness, I need to know you are near.
We don't know where we'll be tomorrow;
let us gather good memories while we are here.

(chorus)
Thru the years you've been right by my side,
my dearest friend, I always can depend -
that when I despair, 'cause hate seems everywhere
our love lights the way to a brighter day.

Hold me close, let us help one another
remember the gladness that we once had.
Hold me close, let us be for each other
a haven of comfort in a world going mad.

(chorus)

Hold me close, let me know that you love me,
I need to know you are near.

Hold me close.
Hold me close.
Hold me close.

..

Discovery Of 'Electric Bacteria' Hints At The Potential For Alien Life

http://io9.com/discovery-of-electric-bacteria-hints-at-the-potential-f-1606527881

George Dvorsky
July/17/14 8:40am

Microbiologists have learned that certain strains of bacteria are capable of using energy in its purest form by eating and breathing electrons. It's a discovery that demonstrates an entirely new mode of life on Earth — and possibly beyond.

Called "electric bacteria," these microbes harvest electrons from rocks and metals. These microbes produce hair-like filaments that act as wires, ferrying electrons back and forth between the cells and their environment.

Scientists have already shown that two types of bacteria, Shewanella and Geobacter, are capable of doing this, but they're learning that many more strains exist, including those that can be enticed out of rocks and marine mud using electricity. New Scientist explains:

That should not come as a complete surprise, says Kenneth Nealson at the University of Southern California, Los Angeles. We know that life, when you boil it right down, is a flow of electrons: "You eat sugars that have excess electrons, and you breathe in oxygen that willingly takes them." Our cells break down the sugars, and the electrons flow through them in a complex set of chemical reactions until they are passed on to electron-hungry oxygen.

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Nealson's team is now growing its very own electric bacteria, keeping them alive with electricity and literally nothing else. His colleague, Annette Rowe, has identified up to eight different kinds of bacteria that eat electricity

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[They might be able to keep them alive with just electricity, but their bodies, including filaments, are made of matter, which has to come from somewhere. They must need more than electricity to multiply.]